AZ-1 First Poll Numbers Have Been Released

The Social Research Laboratory at Northern Arizona University has released the first poll numbers for the congressional race between one-termer, rubber-stamping Republican Rick Renzi and the Democratic challenger Paul Babbitt. Overall, Rick Renzi holds a lead with 49% of the vote compared to 38% of the vote for Paul Babbitt and 12% undecided. (To read about the background of this race, please see my diaries.)

Although the horse-race numbers are not as good as I had hoped for our guy, reading through the full poll offers much to be optimistic about. The size of the congressional district is huge. It is bigger then any other district in the country where the state has more than one congressional district. That together with the fact that Paul Babbitt has yet to mobilize his force, combined with Renzi being out there all over the state, gives me great hope that Babbitt will be able to turn those numbers around.

That thought is backed up by the numbers. When respondents were asked to name Rick Renzi, their congressman, 71% could not. Yet, 75% of the respondents feel that they know "some" or "a lot" about Mr. Renzi. 85% of the respondents could not name Paul Babbitt as the Democratic candidate running for congress in this district. And 54% of respondents said they know "nothing at all" about Paul Babbitt. To me, these numbers speak of a very soft group of likely voters who have yet to tune in to this race at all. If the Babbitt campaign can raise enough money to get Paul known to the voters, I think that we can take this seat from the Republicans. So show your support for this congressional seat and send some money to Paul today. Please add 3 cents to your contributions so the campaign knows it is coming from the blog world.

More Numbers Inside.

As we frequently see in poll numbers, women are wiser in their choice. Women split evenly in this race (Renzi 43% - Babbitt 42% - Undecided 16%). Renzi, the war-loving, ex-football playing, big SUV-driving, "Yes" man to Bush scores big amongst men (Renzi 56% - Babbitt 35% - Undecided 8%).

We have a lot of room we can gain right in our own party. 24% of democrats support Renzi and 16% of democrats are undecided. That is where getting Paul's message out will help greatly.

Fred Solop, the director of SRL made this interesting observation, "The eyes of the nation are on Arizona's First Congressional District waiting to see how this race plays out...Despite Renzi's lead at this time, the seat remains competitive and high-profile." I agree with him and expect the republicans to continue to dump money into our district. So please send some money to Paul today and add 3 cents to your contributions so the campaign knows it is coming from the blog world.

The survey was conducted between April 7th and April 11th 2004. 611 likely voters were polled. The pargin of error is +/- 4%. Questions?

•  Babbitt can win

  Hey Greg!  Yeah, I think Babbitt can win this one, but I am concerned about something I heard. Not only will Renzi have plenty of money for the race, he's also getting lots of money for projects in this district.  Now that's great for someone like me living in this district, but I am sure that if Renzi had been a Dem, we wouldn't be seeing a cent. It seems the Repubs in the House are willing to help Renzi win at the expense of other districts that need federal money.

  by Erin in Flagstaff on Tue Apr 13, 2004 at 04:33:15 PM PDT

  •  That is a concern

    And even worse, I hear the Republican Congressional Commitee is giving him money to throw around to non-profits in this district. I'm happy to see these groups getting that money but we all know the real reason they are bringing that money. I hope those groups can discern the difference.
    

    by GregFromFlagstaff on Tue Apr 13, 2004 at 05:14:27 PM PDT

•  babbitt

  Any relation to Bruce?

  by Evan on Tue Apr 13, 2004 at 04:38:26 PM PDT

  •  Brother?

    If memory is correct, he's Bruce's brother.  The Babbitt's are a big name here in Flagstaff, though that may not translate to other regions of the district (CD 1 is huuuuuge).
    

    by Erin in Flagstaff on Tue Apr 13, 2004 at 04:52:01 PM PDT

    •  Brother is Correct

      You are right Erin, Bruce is his brother. Their was a disturbing question about this in the poll. They asked if learning the two were brothers would make more or less likely that you would vote for Paul. 20% said more likely but 28% said less likely. I think that may be because of the wording of the question. They related Bruce to Clinton in the question. So it may be more of a negative response to him instead of Bruce.

      by GregFromFlagstaff on Tue Apr 13, 2004 at 05:17:42 PM PDT